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world's economic crisis, a tanzanian perpective


GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ADVICE TO TANZANIANS, AND EAST AFRICANS
Dear My Countrymen,

At this point, many of you are aware of the Economic turmoil that has rocked the global economies. From the NYSE, LSE, to Hong-Kong Stock Exchange the cry is the same, and the pain is being felt in all sectors ; manufacturing, energy, agriculture etc.

Even though the problem may have started as Mortgage crisis in the US, and many thought it would have ended there, the reality is rather different, and the truth is painful and scary to hear. The data that has been available for almost two years now, pointed to the very situation we are in today. Middle analysts detected the problem raised their eye brows, but then their voices were too low to be heard by money hungry, bonus driven Wall-Street executives.

The big shots at the Wall-Street, driven by greed continued to cook their deals; duped European Bankers with bogus deals, who in turn spread the rotten credit deals in all global markets. Anyway, the damage has been done, and now faced with a reality of controlling the pain! And must consider the impact of the problem; how is it going to affect the common man in Tanzania and elsewhere in Africa!

Millions of people in the US who invested their lifetime savings in the stock market have watched their funds melt in their own eyes. A man or other a client, who invested his savings in the stock option plan, in one of the now gone companies, lost $4 million in less than a year; People are loosing their jobs, many businesses closing their doors, people can no longer afford paying their once owned expensive assets. Banks and many financial institutions are collapsing at an alarming rate. Millions around the world are rapidly depleting their savings.

Even though the Central Banks around the world have taken aggressive and swift measures to curb the problem by cutting interest rates and pumping almost a Trillion dollar rescue packages into their respective economies, so far the effort have not calmed the anxiety, the problem seems very deep entrenched than many thought.

That means, the meltdown was not limited to the Sub prime, it is in the credit, manufacturing and even retail.

When major banks cannot meet their Liquidity requirements as in the case of several fallen US banks, when Short term lending becomes a problem, when commercial paper is not attainable, the economy goes into its knees. Many companies depend on these short term instruments to finance their day to day operations, short term projects, as well as meeting their payroll needs.
And when they can’t secure these instruments, it means they stop their operations.
Likelihood of companies letting their employees go due to payroll problems are very real. LIBOR, a system used in the UK and partly in the US for inter-bank lending, whose rates have gone up, shows that we are in for a long and tough ride, raising the inability of Banks to issue loans to individuals and companies lacking highest ratings in the ratings circles.

The Global Markets are plummeting, due to the fact that, investors are worried, no individuals or companies want to put their investments in the risky market, and many (millions) are pulling out their investments. Consumers are scared to spend, and this is leaving experts without any cure to the disease, that is spreading globally.

Many of you know that Wall-Street or other financial markets are driven by speculation as you witnessed early during the year, when energy prices went off the roof in the Western World; this was fueled by speculation of war outbreak in the Persian Gulf, Economic boom in Asia Pacific, and India. Now that economic boom has taken a downward trend, so has the demand and the prices.
Speculation has now turned into fear for the worse,
These are symptoms of an economic recession, and even though further bear the hallmarks of the 1929 great depression, we are optimistic things will turn around before we get into a similar economic tragedy.

To our people, fear is the worst enemy of any human being. Do not fear or panic in these uncertain times. Go about your daily activities, and please.

*Abstain and cut OFF completely, all the unnecessary spending, and purchases
Do not rush into the bank to remove your deposits, because you will create an environment in which banks liquidity runs to zero, hence a collapse.

*Make sure you ask from your bank how much money they insure with the central bank as those in America and Europe, be assured that, All your deposits are safe. Bank of England and European Union Central Banks are currently in charge of all deposits

*Constantly check with your Bank to see how things are moving in terms of the safety of your deposits.

*I know many cannot afford depositing their monies into precious metals, but for those with excess cash, may want to consider this option as an alternative to safeguarding their most liquid assets (cash) and these valuables can be deposited in most of the banks, this will ensure economic continuity in the economy.
*Be careful, and not fall a prey of con artists with cure to any economic problem. Your trusted licensed banker and government monetary officials entrusted with the task should be the only persons to deal with.

Economists, policymakers and monetary experts in our country have perhaps taken measures, or have aggressive plans in place that will safeguard your savings, you must therefore be optimistic, at the same time must be cautious not to be caught off guard.
Since many of our third world countries are dependent on the West for Tourism, Export, and Aid to subsidize their Budgets, the impact may be soon be felt. The IMF has pointed for a deep recession.
Either way, how prepared are we?

The Writer Is a US-based,
Social Activist & Investment Banker,
of Tanzanian Origin.


Kuna Maoni 29 mpaka sasa.

  1. Mdau Anasema:

    Thanks Mr. Social Activist & Investment Banker, of Tanzanian Origin.

    But before everyone rushes for the panic button it's worthwhile to recall that even during the US Great Depression of 1929 despite Wall Street losing over 50% of it's value unemployment rose only to 25%.

    That was an alarming level, but there still was 75% of the workforce in employment.

    What they (the working class) then wanted was more value for their money.

    In other words, if you are a smart hardworking entrepreneur and willing to offer more value for money you can survive economic downturns like this one (which is still far from Great Depression levels).

    Furthermore I read somewhere that about 50% of successful US enterprises were founded during the Great Depression.

    It was a good time to buy companies for those who had visions.

    Like now, it's a good time to buy American real estate for those with the vision and the funds.

    So keep your heads high, and most important KEEP LOOKING FOR OPPORTUNITIES.

    One man's fall is another's rise. Au wabongo tunasema KUFA KUFAANA.

    //Mdau

  2. Anonymous Anasema:

    Nice article. Been reading these and of course it is becoming somewhat a song. I like your ending... how prepared are we?

    First, as long as we stick to being highly regulated, we should be ok. Tatizo if we somewhat think market has all the answers and ignore all the little signals..it will be too late.

    Second, For all those who have been tasked to hold and care the faith that has been put them, here i refer to all the exchange commission, must work deligently. Wote twajua tunatrade kwa makaratasi ambayo yamekuwa backed na assets. Any irregularity kwenye checking.... we are in trouble.

    Turizike na tulivyonavyo. Mwisho wa greed ni mbaya ALWAYS.

    BBK

  3. Anonymous Anasema:

    Nice article and timely advice to our bunkers but the trouble is our domestic economy has lost all its sensitivity to any external shocks rendering it impotent and totally detached from the international financial markets!This is for real.Our people especially labour-age have been forced for years since this country attained flag independence to live and work without any form of credit or mortgage financing!Things like Speculation and Expectations driving economic growth are non-existent in Tanzania.This is literally a dead economy where the bulk of employee are forced to lead their lives on Cash Basis.Banks do not have to worry about earning their income from bank loan interest rates since the Treasury is there to protect them with tempting Treasury Bills and Govt Bonds!Why bother with Financial Money and Stock Markets in the country if all norms of economic regulation are swept under the carpet!Why?Because thats what BONGONOMICS is all about!Politics of the Belly first,economic growth second!

  4. Anonymous Anasema:

    stone the crows,holy ghost,from day one.tanzania has always been in economic crisis,we one of the POOREST nations on earth,we are just a boat in the high seas drifting to where the wind will take us.i dont see how this will affect us,as we are allready suffering,the living standard of the peasantry of tanzania dwindles by the day,coupled with mismanagement of our hard earned dough,by the powers that be,i dont see how the world situation can make us suffer more then we do

  5. stephen Anasema:

    The article is very informative. It provides insight into what exactly is going on. There have been questions though on how an economy like Tanzania's will be affected.

    I remember reading somewhere, some statistics, stating that less than 20 % of the population in Tz has bank deposits. I believe less than 5 % have investments in the stock exchange, we do not have a significant mortgage market and the biggest banks are have significant local ownership, so it is quite unlikely, that the financial crisis will affect us.

    If the recession will really bite in the west, tourism will be affected, and that's when we will feel the pinch. Gold dominates our exports...so if the article is right ,we might benefit from high prices....as long as the legislation on minerals is improved.

    The government was planning to issue a sovereign bond, that plan will probably be put on hold.....negatively affecting investments on infrastructure crucial, for growth, taming inflation and economic development.

  6. Anonymous Anasema:

    Huyu activist atakuwa ndugu yetu John Mashaka wa Wall Street, usiogope kuandika jina baada ya watu kutoka comments nyingi ulipokanyaga Tanzania juzi.

  7. Anonymous Anasema:

    Asante sana for the advice and a well written article. Tanzanians watchout; mnakumbuka mambo ya greenland bank halafu BOT ikawaruka wateja??!!

  8. Anonymous Anasema:

    Michuzi sorry imebidi niingilie kati. Most of the information offered are inaccurate. Kwanza kabisa stock market is not even 50%of the US capital market. I need you to go and get that facts rights. Pili, i know the meltdown of house crisis have a huge impact on people life and economy as a whole.

    You touched about overnight loan, tatizo sio bank to bank loan. Tatizo ni liquidity, means there is no cash katika mabank mengi. Does it mean the world is over? NO HOSEA. It is tough time lakini things will settle. S&P 500 tangu Nov mwaka jana mpaka sasa imeanguka kama 40%, lakini kwenye kila bear market haya ni mambo yakawaida.

    Tatizo ni kwamba hili jambo limetokea wakati wa Election. so what is happening ni kwamba media ina tia chuvi na kufanya kana kwamba sky is falling or America is become another Zimbabwe.

    America imesurvived strong hit, kama collapse ya S&L in 1987, the nightmare of 2001. Lakini all the time ikirudi inarudi strong. Ushauri wangu ni kwamba hold your self strong. Save some cash sababu you never know, NO BODY KNOWS HOW DEEP THIS CRISS.

    Last year nili adress hii issue kwenye moja ya websites, nikasema kwamba no one knows how deep US economy will be affected na hii turmoil. Other than that India bado wana faidi economy growth, China bado wana strong economy. Japana wata suffer sababu wanategemea sana export kuja US, and USA dollar is in the toilet.

    I think hii issue ni beyond majority of analyst expectations. Fed Fund Rate is about 1.5, hakuna ujanja wa kukata zaidi ya hapo. Kampuni hazina cash. Lakini it is far less than 1929.

  9. Anonymous Anasema:

    Mwaka jana humu humu kwenye blog ya Jamii, nilijaribu kusema kuwa hiyo mortagage crisis inayoanza US itaaffect uchumi dunia nzima tena inaweza sababisha recession. Mie sio mchumi lakini napenda sana kusoma financial news kwa muda mrefu sana mpaka nimeshajua trend inavyokwenda. Chakushangaza watu hasa WaTz wanaoishi huko Marekani walinicharua vibaya sana, eti sijui uchumi na hiyo ni mortagage problem too soon itaisha, hiyo ni kuweka tatizo chini ya zulia na kufikiri kuwa ni kama maji litakauka. Sasa yu wapi yule mchumi wa US aliyekuwa mbishi na mkali kusema kuwa hili jambo haliwezi kutuathiri! Asikudanganye mtu hivi huu uchumi ulivyokuwa globalised hakuna mtu atakayepona na madhara yake, utaonja tu japo kidogo. Tumeonja bei ya mafuta ilivyopanda, na hayo Mabenki yetu yalivyo kuwa na hisa kubwa za Mabenk ya nje sijui hali ikoje!

  10. Anonymous Anasema:

    I concur with the guy, who has addressed the issue of our economy being less sensitive to global turmoil. I could tell that the US based investment banker of tanzanian origin has lost touch completely with what is happening in Tz. this is a cash economy. Kuna hela za kufa mtu completely out of the banking system. bank notes zinaweza kubadilishana mikono hata mara hamsini kabla haijagusa kitu kinachoitwa benki na huo ni ukweli. On one side ndio inafanya tusikopesheke hence maendeleo hafifu on the other side ndio baraka yenyewe in turbulent times. I had a chat with a friend a couple of days ago and the question did arise about the impact of credit crunch i do remember to have said to the government yes (may be yes) misaada ya budget support itapungua lakini hebu tuangalia impact ya credit crunch and global melt down to hadzabeh community huko manyara. Au kwa mtu yeyote ambaye anategemea kilimo cha kujitegemea (subsistence farming). Utaona haitakuwa sawa na kwenye nchi zilizoendelea ambako watu wana trillions of dollars in credit card debts, wana mortgages actually wanaishi kwenye borrowed success benki zikiyumba maisha yanayumba. Mimi katika biashara yangu ya kuuza mahindi tandale sioni impact ya Dow Jones kupungua points au FTSE actually imenichukua muda mrefu tu kuelewa kinachojiri huko kwa mbali sasa nimeanza kuelewa. nikiangalia maendeleo katika soko letu la hisa naangalia kuwa hisa zote zimejikita katika basic stocks hakuna exotic derivetives ambazo zinahitaji mganga wa kienyeji kuelewa value iko wapi zitarajii hapo kama kutatokea tatizo na nashauri ukiona bei ya hisa inashuka kanunue kwa spidi kubwa maana ukiangalia hata gawiwo tu mambo si mabaya.

    Mdau,

    Tandale, Kwa Mtogole

  11. Anonymous Anasema:

    Sidhani kama kuna mtanzania anayetakiwa kuweka pesa kwenye matress. Ukweli ni kwamba uchumi wa Tanzania hautegemei sana kukopa pesa.

    Stock market is not measurement of economic growth. Sio kwamba nabisha hizi sio hard time. Bali ninachosema ni kwamba Tanzania and US correlation haipo. We don't have economic relation na hizi nchi, and i can prove that. Angalia economic growth ya 90s, and compare na Tanzania. So, i think mortgage meltdown to some extent itaadhiri Tanzania, lakini in very small %.

    On the other hand, kwa US tatizo sio mortgage tuu, tatizo ni liquidity. Utaona US Central Bank imekata rate jana na sasa ni 1.5%. Lakini haija solve tatizo, sababu bank hata zikienda kukopa then zitalipaje? Sababu kwanza wana experience less deposit, sababu sources zao kubwa za kutengeneza pesa ni through loan, na hawatoi loan sababu ya Credit Crunch.

    Other part of the world kama China, Brazili, India and Russia bado wana experience positive economy growth, japokuwa stock mkt zao zimepata hit, Majority wa International Investor wana wekeza kwenye emerging market wanatoka nchi za magharibi, na wana hofia risk ya hizi emerging market kwamba ni unstable ndio maana unaona double digit losses.

    Kwa wale mlio Tanzania ushauri ni wa bure kabisa kwamba weka pesa zako kwenye LOCAL BANK sababu hazina connection na hizi GREED international Banks.

    Kwa wale tulio USA don't even worry sababu am sure hakuna mwenye more than 250,000 bank. Na kama una 401K na umepata big hit, kabla ujatoa pesa zako kwanza think about your age, kama your btn 20-38 dont even worry, sababu you will gain your money over the period of time. Kwa wale ambao mko above 40, i think ni muda wa kuangalia kuwekeza kwenye Fixed Income Asset ambazo ziko graded vizuri.

    Si shauri mtu kuwekeza kwenye commodities, yaani dhahabu, sijui almasi, sijui nini. Sababu hizi Asset kwa sasa zipo Way over priced... WAY OVER.

    Hold your cash, sababu tukianza kununua soon next year, you will never believe reward yake.

    Kingine kuwa muangalifu na all Analyst out there. This is nothing compared to 1929 or 1987. Usimsikilize Anderson Cooper au larry King or Ali Vershi, they dont know Sh****** about Financial MKT. Also Finance 2310 doesnt apply on this staff.

  12. Anonymous Anasema:

    BOT is probably "sleeping at the switch" as usual for i have not heard anything from Governor since the global financial crisis got worse. I hope we can learn from what is happening to others.

    Well, probably Tanzania is immune since the credit market here is not as pervasive. Loans are for limited few salaried workers. Most people still buy with their earned cash, there are no credit cards, no mortgages. Most Tanzanians have no clue what a stock market is, let alone trade stocks.

    Commercial paper? not in TZ.

    Real Estate bubble? not so sure.

    There is no investment bank or hedge fund activity in TZ, there is no trading of complex financial instruments.

    There are risks however such as Banks which have exposure to the outside, eg Barclays, StanChart, etc., because i am not sure of what kind of depositors insurance we have in Tanzania.

  13. Anonymous Anasema:

    Jamani, samahani sana, hii article, nimeisoma, lakini sina shaka wala swali kutamka kwamba hii article imeandikwa na John Mashaka wa Wall-Street

    Bwana John Mashaka, wewe ni kichwa. Man you are so smart, I agree

  14. Anonymous Anasema:

    Good job my friend, this is well put and thought through.
    My understanding is that those countries with precious metals such are gold are befiting from this crisis. Since Tanzania has enermous amount of Gold, would you to talk about the role of Gold and how conventional investors could benefit from that.

  15. Well written article, and very nice responses from all of the people above; some responses offer contrasting views, but I must say almost all are well thought and argued. Here is my take on things

    1. There have been reports that this is the worst crisis since the great depression. Some people like Anonymous from 12:43 PM have argued that the media is highly sensationalizing this, and I partly agree. The availability of TV and Internet everywhere and the fact that news is on the tip of our fingers works to the good or bad; depends on the situation. Economists believe that the investment world (particularly investment in capital markets) always on a short-term reacts to emotions (investor's fears or confidence in something) and in the long run, the true value of the assets and the state of the markets.
    Now, with all the pundits and "analysts" telling people what they should think, or keep throwing in their faces how terrible things are; it forces investors to react with fear; pull their money out of the market, etc and as a result, you have a ripple effect of prices dropping.

    However, I do agree that this crisis is bigger than what most had anticipated. It's definitely bigger than the dotcom bubble burst of 2001. I think the worst thing about the current crisis (even compared to the great depression), is that the banking system is the one which is hit worst. Almost all businesses involve banking in one way or another (either you will have to borrow from a bank to invest somewhere; or you will invest your money in or through a bank; or will have to make payments for a transaction via a bank). Therefore when the banking sector goes down, the effects trickle down to all other sectors, that is why even the manufacturing and tech sectors which initially seemed to be weathering out the storm are feeling the heat now.

    2. An integral part of the US economy is the consumer economy. That is why the government sent out $600 stimulus package to encourage consumer spending, which didn't seem to work too well before. There is talk in Congress about pumping USD 150bn into people's pockets to go hand in hand with the USD 700bn bailout. The plan is to have this right after the election. If the timing is right; the effects of the new stimulus package, coupled with Black Friday effect (and holiday season shopping as a whole), it may just revive the consumer economy, which will hopefully have a resonating effect to the economy as a whole.

    3. Going back to the situation in Tanzania. A couple of months ago, we had a similar discussion on UCHUMI NA FEDHA about how the African Financial Systems managed to stay away from the credit crisis. The thesis was that the fact that the majority of African countries depend on T-Bills to account for a large proportion of their financial markets.

    However, back then I believed that the worst of the storm was yet to pass, and that the effects will be felt eventually; even if not in the collapse of the financial systems, we may feel effects in other avenues. I still hold the same view today.

    The good thing about capital markets in Tanzania is that, institutional investors play a very large part. And most of these -All pension funds, UTT and National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF)- are public institutions thus have a lot of restrictions on the kind of securities they can invest in; as well as the type of markets - overseas investment for instance, is totally off limit for some if not all of these institutions. Other than these institutions, there are commercial and/or investment banks. A majority of our banks are partly or fully Tanzanian owned; followed in numbers by Kenyan owned banks, and they all conduct business locally. So we may be okay in this respect. However, if this problem turns out into a global recession or even worse depression, we will start feeling the effects through reduced Foreign Direct Investments, Exportation, Tourism, Foreign Aid, etc.

    Any challenge/problem is a potential opportunity though, and like some before me have said, kufa kufaana. However, I am not too sure that we (Tanzania) are ready to take this chance.
    *No matter what economic crisis the world is going through, one item that will always be in demand is food. We have been claiming for years that agriculture is the "backbone" of our economy, yet we always seem to be the ones importing food instead of exporting; despite the fact that we live in the tropic which are ideally more suitable for farming.
    *Precious metals always rise in value during economic crisis as people find them as a more suitable investment. We have lots of Gold, but if we keep getting only 3% of royalties, what's the point?
    *Rising production costs in the western world has pushed most corporations to export blue collar jobs to developing countries. This has played a major part in the rise of India and China and continues to sustain people in most of South East Asia and the subcontinent.
    But with the power rationing that seems to happen every other year, we can not attract manufacturing jobs or any other jobs that would require a reliable power supply day in day out. When things are okay, we never bother to find long-term solutions. Last time we had a power crisis, we ended up into the Richmond mess which costs us billions; after that saga was over, we spent so much time pretending to do witch hunting, whilst forgetting to plan for the next time this happens. And guess what... power rationing is back again!!

  16. Anonymous Anasema:

    You can correct me if I'm wrong but I think 60% of TZ budget is covered by donors(Western Countries). With this Economic crisis hitting US and Europe who are TZ main donors do you think they will have funds to donate to TZ?
    This problem is far broad than most of people think, as you might be aware nobody really know the value of these CDO and CDS which are the reason behind this mess.
    These idiots were both banks and insurance agencies.
    You would have make more sensible money if you gambled in Vegas than believing these morons.
    I believe Tanzania will feel the pain.

  17. Anonymous Anasema:

    Wee Bwana Joni Mashaka, mbona umeanza kutuletea? Unadhani hatujui kwamba ni wewe ndo mchapishaji wa hii article?

    Umeiandika vizuri. Nzuri sana. Tulidhania wewe ni mvaa ma bluetooth to kumbe humo kwenye watu wenye akili duniani, sishangai umeajiriwa Wall-Street

    English is not reachable, ningechangia kwa kidhungu

  18. Anonymous Anasema:

    Mr Mashaka, it seems you stepped on some hot waters in Tanzania that is why you dont want to reveal your Identity? But it is obvious that this article has been written by someone in your level. Not any Tom and Harry would have composed this

    We understand, but know that we really appreciate you and your contribution to our country, you are challenge to many of us. this is a well written and thought of article.

    I agree with all contributors that you are a head to be reconed with. Sasa ndio tunakuona, we thought you are just Mashauzi

    Job well done. Asante Mithupu !

  19. Anonymous Anasema:

    Guys!! I'm happy with this shift from tabloid type of discussion to issues, is nice to discuss issues and for the guy who wrote this article...i say 'keep it up' and for those who responded in either way of analysis i give you my appreciation, it is good and that is we have to be doing in this blog.
    The bottom line is that, this is global crisis that has to be dealt globally and no matter how you may defend it, Tanzania will be affected in one way or onother.
    We are duty bound to discuss it.

    Keep it up guys!
    & enjoy with the rest.

    The boy in exile....

  20. Anonymous Anasema:

    This is noise and not a signal to anything. The markets are shifting and what we need to do is to change our business models and valuation methods. Risk and returns have a complex relationship and humans add more complexity. Seeking alpha has never been easier, naked capitalism has never been easier. It is about time for the markets to shift and investors to wake up and see where the value is. It is not in real estate,stocks, or bonds.Things do blow up and people do screw up. The markets will reach a correct themselves and regulations will change. Have no anxieties we have too much brain power to be beaten by crashes in the west,east, and North. We don't care.

  21. Anonymous Anasema:

    Hamna cha ajabu na msisingizie Wall Street ndio chanzo cha haya matatizo, hizo ni porojo za media.
    Kuna kitu kinaitwa supply na demand. Kuna kitu kinaitwa free markets. Kuna kitu kinaitwa capitalism. Kuna kitu kinaitwa innovation. Kuna kitu kinaitwa absolute returns na kingine kinaitwa financial engineering. Kingine kinaitwa politics na kingine kinaitwa sheria. Sasa hapa mkitaka huu mjadala uwe wa mwaka mzima tutafanya hivyo. Nani afikishwe kizimabani buyers of credit derivatives swaps au seller wa credit derivatives swaps? buyers of mortgages or sellers of mortgages? Hivi vitu vinayoitwa mortgage backed securities MBS ni aina ya derivatives ambazo zimetokana na financial innovation. Speed ya benki kuweza kuwa na pesa nyingi za kukopesha bila kutegemea deposits au savings. Balance sheets ndio zenye matatizo, kuna assets zilizoshuka value kupindukia kwa kutumia mark to market accounting. Na kwa kutumia Basel Accord na credit risk models imeonekana kuwa Capital ya financial insititutions inatakiwa ichambuliwe kwa namna 3 kuna reguratory capital, accounting capital na economic capital. Sasa hizi benki zinafeli kumeet conditions zinapochekiwa na FDIC pia zinashindwa kutimiza obligations. Kuna drama nyingi mno zinaendelea. Nadhani neno drama ndio neno muafaka. Sisi Watanzania tutaathirika hata kama correlation ni 0.Global economy imeshikiliwa na nchi chache sana na matajiri wachache sana basi wakiathirika wao
    nasisi hatuna jinsi ni kusubiri kipindi cha shida kiishe na raha itakuja. Hakuna kujiandaa kwani hatuna nguvu. Sanasana nunueni mchele na mahindi wekeni kwenye maghala ili msife njaa kwa wingi.
    Inflation inakuja,recession ndio hiyo. Bado thamani ya dala itazidi kushuka. Kuna hesabu nyingi sana wala tusitake kujitia kuzijua. No one knows what will happen it is a day by day hustle and keep trading what you are trading and do what you have to do to be the best survival.

  22. Anonymous Anasema:

    Free markets. Capitalism. Stop pointing fingers to Wall Street,they are innocent until proven guilty of fraud. Their job is to generate high returns,supply capital,asset management,capital allocation, and risk management. Hakuna cha kuwa greedy nani hapendi pesa tena nyingi sana na nani analazimishwa kununua nyumba yenye vyumba 30 na bathrooms 60 kwa mortgage? Ndio maana nasema hapa ni supply na demand. Huwezi kumshutumu supplier wala buyers. bangi pia ni hivyo,prostitution pia ni hivyo. hakuwezi kuwa na malaya kama hamna wanaowataka hao malaya. malaya ukimtukana unkuwa huelewi maana ya free markets na capitalism. Serekali inalaumiwa kuwa imeweka regulations mbovu zilizotoa mianya kwa wajanja. Land of opportunities na home of the braves manake nini?
    Inajulikana penye returns hapakosi risk. basi mkipata risk kubwa kuliko uwezo mjue ya kufanya.

    Eti wamespread rotten credit to Europe and Asia. Caveat emptor buyers beware! Who don't know that?
    Hakuna aliyefosiwa huko Ulaya kununua rotten credit ya Marekani,kweli si kweli? Pia unaposema rotten credit una maana gani? Yaani hao jamaa wa huko Ulaya na Asia walikuwa wajinga kiasi gani mpaka wakubali kubambikiwa na wajanja wa marekani.Haya ni madeal yamejamba kama madeal mengine tunayofanya mtaani. Hauhitaji rocket science knowledge kuelewa game inyoendelea katika uchumi wa dunia au nyanja ya fedha.Hedge funds zinacollpse kila siku na mpya zinaanzishwa kila siku basi na iwe hivyo acha Barclays wafe AIG wafe. hakuna justice tuwaachie wapangao maisha ya watu wafanye maarifa yao.

  23. Anonymous Anasema:

    Yeah! kumekuwa na overconsumption and overproduction of highly risk products. We just have to play the markets and move with the flow. Kuna counterparty risk, kuna systemic risk, na kuna contagion effects. Haya maswala yanayoendelea kutokea ni matamu sana kuyatazama acha tuumie kwani yalipokuwa mazuri sana nani alifaidi?mjomba angu?
    Finance ministers wa G8 kukutana, central banks zimecoordinate na kufanya interest rate cuts lakini investors pessimism iko pale pale na traders wanalalamika hakuna demand si kwenye equity markets wala fixed income. Forex markets nazo zinayumba, commodity markets zinayumba. Msukosuko huo, usimchezee chatu utaukosa ushindi.
    Hapa bwana si mchezo hakuna cha IMF wala Fed Reserve wala ECB wala nani. Hank Paulson/Bernanke na Gordon Brown hawalali tumbo joto. Kiwkete/Ndulu/Mkulo wanalala hawana wasiwasi wala pressure.
    This is a fool's debate! These tsunamis did not just erupt from Wall Street greedy, being greedy is part of their game they get paid for delivering supa profits and absolute returns.Miaka zaid ya 15 iliyopita ndio imesababisha haya yanayotokea sasa hivi hivyo mnapofanya analysis zenu msiingie kichwakichwa, Green Span anahusika pia. Ujinga wa wengi umewaingiza wengi kwenye mkenge na hivyo markets and participants have to make a shift that will restore investor confidence and market vibrancy again. hata kama Buffet ataweka bilioni 5 kwa GE na bilioni 8 kwa Goldman Sachs mchezo huu ni mtamu na hatujui hatima yake. it is a day by day hustle. You go down with the flow or you lay down don't mess up that's what's up, ya know what I mean fellaz. That's the game u play or u get played and we paid the cost to be where we are and we are we are going to be in the next 10 years.Let's chill and party the markets are on vacation. there is no capital for business and no employment fo majority.Inventories are not moving i retail stores and Airlines are being shut down. Invest in Philip Morris and Stella Artois or INBev and SAB Miller.

  24. Anonymous Anasema:

    Midhupu, It seems we have changed the gear from tabloid type of discussions to interlectual discussions? the article is excellent. a job well done

    If this article has been written by John Mashaka has many have been suspecting, I must tell you that,we have long been waiting for this time, and it could be the beggining

    I have known Jon since he was a little boy in the 90's growing in Dar. This young man used to write very high powered articles, dissect literature books and teach Form 5 and 6 students yet he was in form 2.

    When he got at job at the UN-ICTR Arusha, John Stunned so mane people. Judges, and other court officials were suprised with his interlectual ability and encourgaed him to resign and go back to school just couple of months after being at the UN.

    Roughly 17 of age he left for the US, and now seeing how brilliant he was. John let the world see you in entirety, Go Boy raise the flag.

    C-Nyange

  25. Anonymous Anasema:

    Its only fair if you provide us your credentials and occupation before giving your advise to other people.
    You might be working in the investment bank but have nothing to do with investments.
    You could be a HR person or even a janitor who knows.
    I'm going to start on this:
    I'm a law student and I have no f#$%@#&*&n clue what's going on as well as how deep we are into this.

  26. Anonymous Anasema:

    C-Nyange I'm suspecting you are John Mashaka. How can he teach form 5 & 6? THese form 5&6 must be the scum of earth. From your statements it seems that this dude both went to school as well as worked at the United Nation Court in Arusha, which I'd argue its validity. A good liar should never loose his/her memory, you seem to have forget about your past sentences. Goodluck on your day dream. What a moron.

  27. Anonymous Anasema:

    We dont want to hear Jon Mashaka's name everywhere. Why do you have to bring him in every topic of discussion? is he the only only smart person in Tanzania? there are lot of smart investment bankers of tanzania in the wallstreet, even my uncles but the fisadis in the daily news see mashaka as their little god. get a life and stop this mashaka mania here.The writer of the article is anonymous why does it have to be mashaka, give us a break. tumebeba boxi tokachoka mbona mnatushocha zaidi.

  28. Anonymous Anasema:

    The scrutiny of the financil credit mess by our learned hook nosed Investment Banker and Social Activist in the US is quite serene and informative to the general Tanzanian surfer.I however do not agree to its effects to the Tanzanian and generally African scenario.While our "wajomba" out there rely on credits on the normal finsncial day to day undertakings, it is quite different here in TZ. MONEY-Raw Cash rules here, and this despite its limitations is what is going to save the day.Wall Street developed a system whereby credits will only rely on trust. Trust became a good currency.With that you could buy a home, a car,fridge and even a holiday package.Trust is what was abused and every thing comes crushing down.All the banks that are crashing now have no assets to back up their issuance of credits.In short if this had happened here in Tanzania "ingekuwa utapeli wa mwaka "

  29. Anonymous Anasema:

    UCHUMI WA TANZANIA NA AFRICA NZIMA UNAWEZA PIA KUTETEREKA, HII INATEGEMEANA NA NCHI HUSIKA INAFANYAJE MAMBO YAKE, KWA MFANO NI BIDHAA/COMMODITY/SERVICES GANI NCHI INAUZA NA KUNUNUA TOKA NJE YA NCHI NA KWA PESA GANI, HAPA NINA MAANA KAMA NCHI KWA MFANO TANZANIA INAUZA PAMBA NJE KWA KUTUMIA DOLLAR NA KUNUNUA MAFUTA KWA KUTUMIA DOLLAR, ITAKUWA SASA INAUZA PAMBA KIASI KILE KILE KWA PESA ZILE ZILE LAKINI PESA HIYO FACE VALUE YAKE ITAKUWA IMESHUKA, HII ITATOKANAJE, NI HIVI WANAPO INJECT MORE MONEY INTO THE ECONOMY KWA NIA YA KUUKWAMUA UCHUMI KAMA USA WALIVYOFANYA $700,000,000,000.00 NA UK £400,000,000,000.00 KUNA UWEZEKANO WA KUFUEL INLATION KAMA HAKUTAKUWA NA USIMAMIZI MAKINI INLATION
    ITA-ERODE NOMINAL VALUE YA DOLLAR, BY NOMINAL VALUE I MEAN FACE VALUE YA DOLLAR ITAPUNGUWA NA NCHI KAMA TANZANIA SASA ITAHITAJI DOLLAR NYINGI KUNUNUWA KIASI KILE KILE CHA MAFUTA. UPANDE MWINGINE WA MUADHIRIKO NI KWA SABABU YA OPEN FREE MARKET NA GLOBALISATION, KWA VILE SASA TANZANIA KUNA FDIs NYINGI AMBAZO KAMPUNI MAMA ZAKE ZIMEKUWA QUOTED INTO THESE FINANCIAL MARKETS KAMA ZILE ZA NYSE, LSE NAKADHALIKA PALE SHARES AND BONDS ZITAKAPO PLUNGE DOWN INA MAANA ZITAPUNGUZA LIQUIDITY KWA HIZI KAMPUNI KWA MAANA HIYO INVESTMENT CAPITAL ITAPUNGUWA KWA VILE INVESTERS HAWATAKUWA TAYARI KU-INVEST KWENYE HIZO KAMPUNI NA MATOKEO YAKE NI KUFUNGWA KWA HIZO KAMPUNI FROM HEAD OFFICE TO TANZANIA BRANCHES KAMA ILIVYOTOKEA LEHMANS BROTHERS NA HII IKITOKEA KAMA TANZANIA WATU WATAKOSA KAZI NA SERIKALI ITAKOSA TAX COLLECTION FROM THE COMPANIES AS WELL AS FROM WOKERS NA HII ITADHOHOFISHA MAPATO YA SERIKALI NA KUADHIRI HUDUMA ZA JAMII. HIVYO HAINA UBISHI NCHI ZOTE ZITAHADHIRIKA KAMA HI KITU ITAKUWA KUBWA. UNAWEZA KUPATA MAJIBU SAHIHI KAMA UTASOMA VITABU VINAVYOHUSU MASWALA YA FINANCE, INVESTMENT AND SECURITIES