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dr. shayo muses over BoT's stance

By Dr. Hildebrand Shayo

Tanzania businesses in forthcoming recession!

The warning, caution and confidence issued by Profesa Benno Ndulu, the Governor of the Bank of Tanzania that the Tanzania's economic remain strong and is likely not to be pretentious by the global financial downturn sent waves through my mind that triggered me to suggest steps that Professor Ndulu overlooked in his analysis, that could help the Tanzanian business recover from the financial gloom terrorising the world financial market.

Although the waters are still turbulent, this is now the time for renowned and professional individuals like Professor Ndulu not to undermine Tanzanian by not telling them the reality.

While the normal way of reducing risk in a portfolio during a slump is by diversifying, certain assets tend to do better than others at different parts of the economic cycle. What the world is experiencing is a de-leveraging, where all asset classes are falling in value and will continue to fall in the next two years. No doubt the world is going through a period where shares, property, fixed interest and even commodities will go down.

That said, despite slowing global economic activity and the impending recession that Professor Ndulu seem not to put into his equation, it is not all doom and gloom for business and especially for those with a long-term approach.
I would like to remind Professor Ndulu that what he needs to remember is that market volatility and the indiscriminate selling the world financial sector is witnessing or has witnessed in the past few weeks will create opportunities to pick up bargains.

I would have thought Professor Ndulu would have coded among others, things like the need for business to consider diversifying their portfolio.

While there's no escaping the fact that it's not going to be plain sailing from on-going global financial turmoil’s, and that all equity portfolios will get rocked by further short-term volatility, he should have assured business with well-insulated portfolios that those with long and proven track records will be able to overcome the slump. He should also have tried to advice the business to look to professional managers who could help them benefit through the cycle.

Stating that Tanzania financial position is fine wasn’t enough, he should have reconsidered what happened to Iceland bank were UK government is struggling to recover its money invested by its business. To state that Tanzania banks are well-positioned for the slump and that Tanzania money in the foreign account is safe and is enough to allow “business as usual” isn’t correct, because Tanzania is not an island! Is Professor Ndulu aware on what Kenya stock market is facing following global financial downturn?

Professor Ndulu should have seen the need for corporate debt that seems not to feature in his statement. To me, corporate debt is one of the first investments to recover in a slump, and many bond experts are beginning to call the bottom of the market for this sector. At the moment, yields are likely to be attractive, because interest rates and inflation will or are expected to fall which is a fantastic backdrop for any finance executive.

In any slump, there are traditional areas which are viewed as immune or defensive such as pharmaceuticals stocks and healthcare company; along with utility providers. People need medicine and power, irrespective of economic conditions. I do understand that tobacco and liquor companies that Tanzania has been using as a “model of success” following privatisation, also tend to flourish under the spectre of a protracted recession.

Nothing regarding our gold reserve was mentioned in his statement! Gold
at times of financial crisis, is looked upon as a safe haven for distressed investors rocked by faIling share prices. In the current extraordinary circumstances, Professor Ndulu should have told Tanzanians where this asset class is going or taking Tanzania?

My view is that gold is a long-term story underpinned with supply and demand drivers that he might deliberately omitted in his statement. Does Professor Ndulu recognize that gold price has been rocky in the current crisis? Last year the gold price was $667 an ounce and it rose to a peak of more than $1000 on March 17th 2008. As price now remains choppy, what is the position of Tanzania that is said to produce a lot of this precious metal among gold producer in the world?

While I am not sure if BOT, that Professor Ndulu is the Governor will bail out private owned banks in Tanzania or nationalise part of them, make me speculate what a business need to do in Tanzanian context ?

I think, business needs to be careful not to be too defensive in the current slump. In a way, looking at a cynical portfolio after values have already fallen is a bit like locking the stable door after the elephant has already bolted.

To the business I think, it's important not to lose sight of your long-term objective, try and have the asset mix which is most likely to give the return you are looking for. If as a business you are too defensive now, you will risk missing the upturn when it happens.

Professor Ndulu should have encouraged the business to seek additional sources of diversification, encourage them the focus on investments with high earning visibility and supportive valuations. Telling us that daily interbank cash market in Tanzania was doing well and BOT is watching exchange rate movement is not enough! We need measures on how to help business to cope with financial downturn.

Kuna Maoni 36 mpaka sasa.

  1. Anonymous Anasema:

    Hawa ndio "wasomi" wa kucopy tu mambo! Anasema - I would have suggested business to diversify their portifolio - Hizo bussiness zenye portifolio za kudiversify ziko wapi Bongo? Kwanza the analysis inaonekana kama imetoka kwenye kitabu ama gazeti lenye mtizamo wa uchumi katika nchi zilizoendelea zenye masoko ya amana ambazo mtu anaweza akachagua kupunguza athari za kiuchumi kwa kununua hiza za makampuni mbali mbali ambayo labda hayawezi kuathirika sana na hali ya kifedha duniani kama vile hisa za makampuni yanayotengeneza dawa, nk.
    Dhana anayoiongelea huyu Dr. kwa kiasi kikubwa si ya bongo. Mwambieni arudi nyumbani!!

  2. Anonymous Anasema:

    Dear Dr Shayo,

    Thanks for sharing this with us. There is a lot of miles in this analysis! We are so used to applauding the big boys` statements - unquestionably - Ndulu is a wise man but this time his arguments dont seem to hold water. Your analysis brings in a new wave of thinking and brings the equation into balance. I am sure fellow citzens will join you in this search for a "spinless" bongo.

    One comment though, don`t you think it would cool to translate this piece of info into swahili? It carries a lot of technical lingo - water it down to make it more palatable - I want my grandad in Minziro to have a crack at Ndulu et al`s concepts of mabenki ya kisasa!

    Many thanks,
    Dr Imani Kyaruzi.

  3. Anonymous Anasema:

    amid piling debris of a global financial crisis our central bank chief comes out with such statement, sometimes you wonder - and this is the guy who took over not a long time ago 2 lead BOT in2 the future? timid statement mr Ndilu, bravo Shayo

  4. Anonymous Anasema:

    Dkt. Shayo,
    Sikiliza, Tanzania is a novice in this world, haiwezi kuathirika. Prof. Ndulu yuko sahihi. You are just trying to review your notices, that is it. Narudia Tanzania is nothing in this world of finances, no effect nothing.

  5. Anonymous Anasema:

    Tunashukuru kupata picha toka pande mbili za sarafu ya uchumi wetu na hasa hasa masuala ya kibiashara na fedha.

    Tumesoma ya maoni ya Prof. Ndullu wa BOT na pia ya Dr. Shayo wa South Bank University jijini London, London ni jiji la kutambulika duniani kama kitovu cha masuala ya kibenki na fedha
    na minongono ya hali ya mwelekeo wa kifedha duniani.

  6. Anonymous Anasema:

    huyu jamaa anamake sense,pamoja ya kwamba mim sio mwanuchumi and also i think this is a global issue isnt just rich countries are in downturn.The governor Prof Ndulu,nilijua tu umechemka before hyu,kwanini unadangya ummaa au watanzania?au tuseme hujui kinachoendelea?how could compare ourselves na nchi kama kenya,tutafika kweli?WATANZANIA NAOMBA TENA TUAMKE,na kisomo tu ndo kitatunyanyua tunadanganywa maana viongozi wanajua we cant find more about this.nilisoma hio habari ya Ndulu juzi nlijiuliza sikupata jibu,tunashkuru kwa hizi glob (michuzi,haki)kuwepo maana wasomi wapo wengi tu kama huyu jamaa na wengi tu ambao roho zao zinaumia na pia zimeshachoka na ujinga wa gov yetu na viongozi.nathani wasomi jitokezene kwa wingi kuokoa kilichopotea.Tanzania imepotea na imekwsiha.ahsante!

  7. Anonymous Anasema:

    I like the article Dr and would be better if you could send articles like these to your fellow Tzanians every now and then,
    But somehow it miss substance in terms of how the liquidity problem in the world would affect us Tanzanians
    In realy sense we are as good as loan virgins compared to these countries.
    Furthermore what about the fact almost 50% of our budget is based on loans and help from abroad how are we going to be affected ?
    Good work again but it just left more questions than answers ....just like Prof Ndulus
    Cheer Dr

  8. Anonymous Anasema:

    African investment could be hit

    BBC News has been running a series of commentaries this week by economists on the challenges facing the global financial system. In the final instalment, Shanta Devarajan considers the implications for Africa.

    Shanta Devarajan is Chief Economist of the World Bank's Africa Region

    We at the World Bank think that the effects of the global economic crisis on Africa will be at least fourfold.

    First, there could be fall-out within the banking system because of foreign ownership.

    If a parent bank in the US or Europe is suffering, it might have an effect on a bank in Africa.

    We do not think, however, that African banking systems are going to suffer the kind of turmoil that the US and European banking systems have been suffering.

    African banks tend to keep their loans on their own balance sheets; there is a very small secondary market; and the market for derivatives is almost non-existent.

    Several African countries are suffering signs of macroeconomic imbalances quite independent of the financial crisis

    The second and biggest effect is going to be the potential decline in private capital flows.

    In the last three years, private capital flows have been rising faster in Africa than in any other part of the world.

    If the global credit crunch leads to a decline in capital flows and a reduced appetite for risk, this could severely affect African countries that have been relying on these flows for their infrastructure investment.

    The third area is the potential decline in commodity prices.

    This has already started. We have just seen the price of oil fall to nearly $70 a barrel.

    However, we are confident that today we are a little bit better prepared to cope with falling prices than we were in the 1980s, when oil prices fell and threw Africa into major turmoil.

    Finally, there are several African countries that are suffering signs of macroeconomic imbalances quite independent of the financial crisis.

    Ethiopia, for example, has an inflation rate of about 60%.

    These countries are going to have to undertake some kind of macroeconomic adjustment, and the presence of the financial crisis may speed this up.

    Of course, there is also a danger that foreign aid might decline.

    But that's based on two other events. One is that there's a major recession in the US and Europe, or in the donor countries.

    And second, whether the spending allocations that governments make will lead to cutbacks in foreign aid.

    There is always that risk, but we are reasonably confident that there may be other ways of shoring up some of those resources, because for many aid is a matter of life and death.

    Shanta Devarajan is Chief Economist of the World Bank's Africa Region.

  9. Anonymous Anasema:

    I think Mr. Ndulu is injecting political talk in such serious matters. He is trying to calm wananchi's fear by not telling people the truth. There's no government in the world right now that her financial position is safe. This is a global financial crisis for a reason and for a governor to use a cheap talk to score big with wananchi it shows lack of ambitions to do his job well. Unless he doesn't read any economic publications on how this will affect the world economy.

  10. Anonymous Anasema:

    hi Dr.shayo. I know you from the time you taught me at the university of dar es salaam in 1990s. What you have said is right. Our politicians and people like prof. Ndulu think the can fool us. we all know that the worse is yet to come and i hope many innocent Tanzanians will be affected, something that will even put President Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete into a task to convince Tanzanians that we are safe!

  11. Anonymous Anasema:

    Excellent article, it's great to have a professional whose actually telling the whole picture as it is, and not just sugar coating it as Prof. Ndulu did. However i do have one point I need to make, the grammar in this article was awful, and coming from a Dr I expected better grammar. I had to read certain sentences twice just to get what u were saying, but overall what you've written makes sense. Thanks for doing that and i hope the Tanzanian community takes your suggestions to diversify onboard.

  12. Anonymous Anasema:

    Dkt. Shayo,
    Sikiliza, Tanzania is a novice in this world, haiwezi kuathirika. Prof. Ndulu yuko sahihi. You are just trying to review your notices, that is it. Narudia Tanzania is nothing in this world of finances, no effect nothing

    Ndugu MKUU WA WILAYA tunaomba hiyu mdau atuthibitishie kiuchumi na sio Kisiasa.
    1.Ikiwa september 11 ilikuwa na effect kwetu.
    2. Pakistani washaanza kuomba pesa World bank ku cope with this situation.

    2008 Tanzania is not of that 1968 we are all aware about whats going on in the World no Cheap assuarance

    The only thing I could suggest is to concentrate on recession strategy as now it is imminet to most of major economy so as we can benefit most

    Huree Dr Shao

  13. Anonymous Anasema:

    Jamani kumbukeni haya ni mambo ya kiuchumi na jamaa yupo right 75% kwanini Je kuna mtu yoyote anajua hayo mabenki ambayo yanafanya kazi Tanzania hawa kuinvest nje ya Tanzania? Pia ikumbukwe kwamba hayo mabenki ambayo yapo Tanzania ni matawi tu lakini (Subsidiary company) wakati mabenki yenyewe makao makuu yake yapo nje ya nchi (Parent Company)

    Je tunafahamu hayo makao makuu ya hizo Bank zipo wapi?

    Kumbukeni kwenye maswala ya Share kila bank inainvest katika kila nchi na sisi hatuwezi kujua, kwahiyo kunachance kubwa sana Tanzania tukawa affected na Credit Crunch.


  14. Anonymous Anasema:

    Tuangalie wote nini cha kufanya. Infact siku zote tangu uhuru, hasahasa tangu vita ya Uganda Tanzania tuko kwenye mgogoro wa kiuchumi. Recession is cronic, hatujui tuko kwenye cycle ipi ya uchumi hata kuipima haisaidi inabaki kucheza na data kuzifanyia massage. wakati huu hakuna tofauti, zaidi labda ya kukosa misaada (japo ilitokea kipindi kifupi wakati wa awamu ya pili). Tuache kuendelea kutumia panadol, tutumie dawa kamili ya kutibu, chloroquine!!

  15. Anonymous Anasema:

    Dr Shayo

    Hii article yako uliyolenga kurekebisha/kuchambua mapungufu yaliyomo kwenye taarifa ya Prof Ndullu imeshindwa kufika malengo uliyokusudia.

    Umemkosoa Gavana Ngullu bila vigezo vyenye ushahidi makini (mf matukio ya soko la hisa la Kenya na kupanda au kushuka kwa bei ya dhahabu kwenye soko la dunia).

    Ningekushauri iwapo unaamua kurekebisha taarifa ya mtu mwenye nafasi ya Gavana wa Benki Kuu na ambaye pia ni Profesa (wa miaka mingi) basi ujiandae na kuandika hoja zenye nguvu na ushahidi; sio kuandika bla bla kana kwamba unatoa hadithi kijiweni au kwenye gazeti la udaku.

    Mdau, London.

  16. Anonymous Anasema:

    Please,Can some one from either Tanzania Bureau of Statistics,famous Economists or any other institution let us know these statistics (both financial and the % contributing to the Tanzanian Economy)(1)Tanzanians (both individuals and institutions)having financial investments abroad (ukiwaacha mbali akina mzee wa vijisenti na wenzake ambao hawataki tufaidi wote).(2)Exporters (of any products)to European and American Markets.
    In my opinion i think these are the areas where Tanzania will suffer the most.

  17. Anonymous Anasema:

    Kitu cha kushangaza ni kwamba iwapo Tanzania bajeti yake sehemu kubwa inategemea foreign donors na hao hao wafadhili hali yao kiichumi ni mbaya, sasa nashindwa kuelewa hii argument Tz haita kumbwa na financial disaster inayowakuta hao wanao contribute kwenye bajeti.Come on gavana tunaishi katika dunia ya high speed mtandao news inapatikana popote Bongo.

  18. Anonymous Anasema:

    Kwanza katika mtandao wa biashara ya mabenki kuna 'contagion' yaani kuambukizwa kilio au kifo na mabenki yalioathirika kiahasara. kwa hiyo hasara ya benki moja ya USA inaweza kuathiri mabenki mengine ya USA na nchi nyingine na hatimaye mabenki ya Tanzania kama kuna uhusiano kati ya mabenki ya Tanzania na mabenki mengine duniani. Gavana hajasema kuwa benki zetu hazina uhusiano huo.

    Pili, athari ya uambukizi yaani 'contagion effect' inategemea uakribu wa taasisi zetu kati yake na zile ambazo zimeathirika katika nchi nyingine.

    Tatu, ukubwa wa maambukizi au severity ya athari, unatokana na kiasi cha fedha, amana na bidhaa zingine za fedha zilzowekezwa katika benki hizo na tasisi zake zingine zinakamilisha mfumo wa fedha. Maumivu na machungu ya hasara yanantegemea sera za nchi husika, yaani kama kuna dozi ya ruzuku ya 'too big to fail' au 'too important to fail au 'too small to bail-out'. Kwa wateja wadogo, kiwango cha cha bima kitakacholipwa ni kigezo cha kiasi gani watu 'wataonja joto ya jiwe'

    Jambo jengine, kudorora kwa uchumi mkubwa huathri ustawi na maendeleo ya masoko machanga yanayo anza kuibuka. kwa mfano, hasara ya watu wenye kipato cha kati wa Marekani kutaathri biashara ya utalii wa Taanzania (ndege, viwanja, hotel, mbuga na fukwe zetu) kwa vile watalii hao ni watu ambao huko Marekani ndio wamepata hasara kutokana na kushuka kwa kwa bei za hisa za makampuni walizonunua, wameshidwa kulipia mikopo ya nyumba zao, wengine wamepata hasara katika biashara zao. Hao ndio sehemu ya watalii wetu, na kwa hiyo watapungukiwa uwezo wa kuja kutalii Tanzania na hivyo kuathrir sekta ya utalii na pato la biashara yetu huenda itashuka. Hivyo hivyo tutaathrika kwa bei ya chini katika biashara ya madini kama Tanzanite, almasi, dhahabu nk. Inapotea hali kama hii upungufu wa kipato katika nchi kama za OPEC utafidwa kwa kupunguza uvunaji wa mapipa ya mafuta na upandishaji wa bei za nisahti hiyo.

    Halikadhalika, thamani ya fedha zetu tuzioweka katika sarafu ya ££ au $$ itaathririka kwa vile bei ya sarafu hizo itashuka kulinganisha na Yen au Euro.

    Mwisho, uwezo wa uchumi wetu kustahamili misuko-suko (crisis) inategemea nguzo za 'stability'. bado nchi yetu inategmea mvua katika kilimo chake, bidhaa nyingi za matumizi ya ndani huagizwa kutoka nchi za nje na wananchi wetu wengi hawana ajira. Serikali yetu hutegemea kiasi muhimu kstika bajeti kutoka nje kama misaada, mikopo au ruzuku. Nchi hizo za nje zinaweza kutoa misaada wakati wa hali mbaya, huwa muhali kwa sababu kutoa misaada au mikopo si kipaumbele wakati watoaji wake wanachechemea. Falsafa yao ni kuwa 'sadaka huazia kwenye kaya yako' yaani usijenge kwa mwenzo kwanza wakati kwako kunaporomoka!!

    (Imeandikwa na mwanafunzi,Idara ya Utafiti wa Tabia za mabenki)

  19. Anonymous Anasema:

    Dr. Shayo seems to be one of the few and courageous Tanzanian scholars to pose such a debate against the views of Prof. Ndulu. My view is that Prof. Ndulu had to say something to assure investors and other risk-takers in our country. But I wonder if he could have said the same thing, had he still been a lecturer. He is the governor now, and he must assure us, even politically. Otherwise we could have asked him to resign for not been able to control the risks the global financial crisis offers Tanzania.
    My view is that, Tanzania economy will be affected if the so called 'donors' stop to support our current budget deficits (especially in the public sector) because of the global financial crisis. So far they are hesitating because of EPA scandal, but the situation will be worse when they don’t offer us because they don’t have money to offer. For example, look at the USA now: who should expect such a government in such a situation to meet its foreign aid obligations? What if the same situation is extended to the all ‘donor countries’? Will the ‘aid dependent’ economy like ours shrine when the one we thought he is ‘aid independent’ declines? Anyway, we do have a very fragile financial sector that is very vulnerable to many other variables that can cause the vicious cycle in our economy. After all, few will feel the slump. The majority ‘walala hoi’ will not feel the pinch because, they are not a part of that global financial economy.

    Boniface (Bonnj)

  20. Anonymous Anasema:

    DR Shayo! hope you are still well after, kuona the coments!

    My comment is as follows:
    kitu unachoongea nikweli hao watu wanao sema uchumi wetu hauta athirika nadhani wana uwenda wazimu kidogo! kwasababu kwakutumia tu kanuni ya mtu ambae hajaenda hata shule, hi hapa duniani sisi Tanzania tukopekeyetu au tuanategemeana na nchi zingine katika swalazima la resources and capital, how many MNC's are there in our country today which have a connection with the global market?

    Cha msingi nilichokua nataka kusema nikwamba Dr.Shayo nikwamba however well- versed someone is in this subject he could not do differently with what Prof.Ndulu has done!

    Kama wewe kweli nimwana uchumi utajua kwamba what Prof. Ndulu alichokua anafanya ni kusound political! kituchamsingi niku mantain the stock market not to enter into shock kama ilivyo tokea wall street, and other asian stock markets, kumbuka some times ukiwa too professional utaharibu kwingine, kumbuka Position ya Prof.Ndulu niya kitaalam as well as political too, kwahiyo he has to balance both sides well.Hata kama unge kua ni wewe kwenye position ya Prof.Ndulu usinge sema kitu tofauti na alicho kisema yeye!

  21. Anonymous Anasema:

    Kikwete mteue Dr. Shayo kuwa gavana wa ile Benki pale mjini.

  22. Anonymous Anasema:

    Ndullu kwa mwanasiasa?
    Mbona athari hazikwepeki

    moja ni juzi tu watoa kodi wanaochangia hizo development programmes walikuwa wanaangalia jinsi gani watazame matatizo yao kabla ya kuchangia afrika.

    pili nchi hizi hizi ndizo zinachangia bajeti zetu

    tatu makampuni makubwa hapa ndo yaongoza mitaji huko na ndo yaliyoathirika

    nne mabenki na hata IMF lazima iguswe kwani hawa jamaa wana mchango mkubwa tu pale.

    Tano tunategemea sana hawa jamaa kupanga sera zetu kwa hiyo ni dhahiri kuwa sera zetu zaweza kuathirika ili kuweza kuwahakikishia kurudi kwenye msitari

    sita kama mabenki mfano barclays zinarun mpaka huko mfano ile branch karibia na movenpik zipo na ndo zinazosota sasa hivi hizo branch tutazipa karantine gani ili zisiweze kuguswa.

    si hilo tu purchasing power yangu hapa ughaibuni imeshuka kutokana na bei za vitu nimeamua nisitume kitu nyumbani je ujumbe wa rais uliokuja kuhamasisha diaspora kuchangia nyumbani ilikuwa haitambui kuwa nachangia uchumi?

    kama biashara zetu zinategemea masoko ya nchi hizi iweje sisi tumaintain masoko kama kawaida?

    Watanzania analysis hii haihitaji economic formulars naona watu waliokaa na kutumia pesa za walipa kodi masomoni wanajichanganya kukanusha ukweli.its so sad hizi nchi zinamake great difference kucompare na nchi zetu afrika hata mtu wa chini kabisa hapa anaelewa position ya nchi kutokana na transparence na wasomi kusema tukidanganya hamuoni inakuja double impact.

    Hongera Dr shayo naamini system unayofanya nayo kazi imekutoa kwenye corrupt ideas


  23. Anonymous Anasema:

    Dr Shayo,Dr Amani Kyaruzi na wote waliotangulia kutoa maoni.Naomba kutoa maoni yangu kwa lugha ya taifa kwani inglishi izi not richabo.

    Napenda kuwafahamisha kuwa Mr Ndulu katika kutoa taarifa yake, ni LAZIMA aseme kama alivyosema na wala siyo swala la siasa.
    Nyie ambao ni wasomi, na kama mlipitia katika shule vitabu vyenu maswala ya benki,au kusoma magazeti yaliyokwenda shule katika maswala ya benki mnajua fika kuwa maswala ya benki ni swala la kuaminiana na punde uaminifu ukivunjwa, ni vigumu kuurudisha.
    Pili system ya benki au tuseme biashara yote ya benk ni saikolojia.
    Kwa hiyo Mr Ndulu ni LAZIMA atumie lugha ya kuwapoza watu ambao wameweka hera zao benki vinginevyo kitatokea kitu kinaitwa BANK-RUN (yaani gafla watu wote walioweka hera zao benki kukimbia na kutaka kuchukua hera zao siku hiyo hiyo) na hii ni mbaya zaidi na ni sawa na kumwaga petroli kwenye moto kwani mfumo mzima wa benki uta-kolopsi.

    Hii kwa Mr Ndulu ilikuwa ni hatua ya kwanza na ikibidi kama hali itakuwa mbaya, basi itabidi serikali na benki kuu, itafute jinsi ya kusaidia mfumo wa benki.
    Na kama mlikuwa mnafuatilia sana hili soo la finance lilipo anzia, mawaziri wa fedha na uchumi wa nchi za magharibi, mwanzo walisema benki zao ziko ok na hakuna tatizo.
    Baadae wakasema ,inawezekana kweli kukawa na matatizo, na mwisho wakaja na mpango wa dola bilioni 700 wa kusaidia mfumo wa benki za USA na euro bilioni 500 kwa Ujerumani, sijui huko UK ni Paundi Bilioni ngapi.
    Kwa hiyo Hawakuja siku ya kwanza na kusema jamani benki zetu zinamatatizo saana, ebu tuwape hizo hera, vinginevyo soo inakuwa kubwa sana.

    Kwa hiyo Mr Ndulu ni LAZIMA aseme kama alivyosema kwa mara ya kwanza na atakuja kusema tena, huu siyo mwisho wa kusema kwake, wewe subiri tu.
    Tatu ni lazima kujua chanzo cha soo hili la finance ni nini na madhara yake kwa tz.
    Ukweli Tanzania itaadhirika lakini siyo kwenye sekta ya benki kwani sidhani kuwa kuna benk yoyote tz ambayo ilijihusisha na biashara mikopo ya nyumba zenye riziko sana hasa huko marekani, kwa maana nyingine bank za tz hazipo kwenye global financial au kama zipo ni kwa kiasi kidogo saana, ila tz itaadhirika kutokana na uchumi wa dunia kukumbwa na soo hili.

    Hii unaweza kuifananisha na wakati wa vita ambapo nchi kubwa duniani zipo vitani, lakini hata kama JWTZ hawapo katika uwanja wa mapambano, bado wataadhirika kwani watakosa kuletewa vifaru vipya kwani labda mipaka imefungwa, au nchi marafiki vifaru vyao wanavihitaji katika vita vyao nk nk.
    Kwa hiyo kwa tz ambayo inategemea bajeti yake kwa asilimia kadhaa hera ya wafadhili na kupewa misaada ya hapa na pale, hii haitakuwa tena kama ilivyokuwa hapo awali.
    Lakini pia inaweza kuwa kitu kizuri kwa tz kwani system nzima ya benki inamulikwa upya, na nchi za magharibi nasikia zimekubali kuwa hapo zamani kulikuwa na upungufu sana katika kudhibiti sekta nzima ya mabenki na ndiyo maana hili soo limetokea. katika hali hii inawezekana siku za mafisadi wa tz waliokuwa wanasaidiwa na mabenki zikawa zinaelekea ukingoni, kwani joto ya jiwe inawasaka watu wa namna hiyo dunia nzima.

    Ushauri wangu kwa wa tz ambao hawana fedha za mafisadi ni kwamba, tutake tusitake hali ya uchumi itashuka, kwa hiyo wenye hera zao waziweke vizuri, wale waliozoea kuuza viwanja kwa ma-bilioni uzeni sasa hivi kwani huko tunako kwenda hera itakuwa ngumu kupata na kiwanja cha bilioni leo, kesho kitakuwa milioni.
    Wale waliozoea kununua magari kwa kuangalia ukubwa wa gari tu bila kuangalia gharama za uendeshaji eg Matumizi ya mafuta nk. hali itawawia ngumu, kwani shilingi itaota mbawa tu kwa mwaka mpaka miwili ijayo.
    Samahani kwa maelezo marefu.
    Ni mimi Mwanakijiji wa Minziro.

  24. Anonymous Anasema:

    jamani haya makubwa huyu dr.shayo amesomea mazingira nashangaa anajitia ujuzi wa uchumi.

    ana phd ya mazingira na London South bank University si chuo kinachotafiti uchumi au fedha. hakuna kozi ya uchumi south bank university pitieni ni chuo cha mammbo ya Engineering na unesi pitieni website yao na pitienI uk league table ni chuo cha mwishono hakina hadhi bora kufundisha mzumbe.







  25. Anonymous Anasema:

    Stupid thinkers like prof Ndullu are supposed to be exposed openly.
    This issues is a serious issue and what Prof ndullu is trying to do is ok kwa wajinga, by giving them assuarance that things wont be bad in the country like TZ.
    In truth things will be much worse in TZ than US. The case in US, Europe and Asia is in part a problem within their banks and can be fixed within ways that the Government and those banks will come upon to agree.
    Tumeona hii habari imefanya Wachina kuanza kufunga viwanda vyao na kufukuza wafanyakazi, pamoja na kwamba wao ndo wamempa US billioni 700. Tumeona Urabuni(saudi Arabia) stock exchange yao imeanguka sana leo, kiasi cha mfalme wake kuwekeza kiasi cha dollar billion 2.7.
    sasa TZ kusema eti itasimama ni uongo mkubwa sana tena sanasana.
    We had the same story in Europe when this shit started in US , that it will never effect Europe and in three weeks Europe was in the line. We heard the same thing too that it will not effect Asians market because Americans are borrowing money from them. Then hoop within five weaks its now the borrowee crying like the borrower.
    Then now its Arabians and I am telling you, Africa will say the same thing but it will be the last continent to be hit hard and with no spare to help itself.
    Sisi itakuja baada ya miezi sita na tutakaa nayo hado maneno ya kuongea tuwe hatuna. Maana tunategemea wakubwa(US, Europe, Asia na Waarabu) watupe fedha za bajeti. Sasa kama nao wana-matatizo fedha z akuendesha nchi tutazipata wapiiiiiiiiii?
    Dr Shayo you are right, kwa sababu you can question anybody in TZ wakati ukiwa huku nje, without kutiwa ndani au kufuatwa fuatwa.
    Nashangaa sana wengi wetu tulio nje tunasema DR Shayo amekosea au hii haitatuhusu TZ, kwa kuwa tunaendelea na maisha yetu kwa kwenda mbele.This is`real.
    Maana kama wewe ukinyimwa credit hapa nje na ukachelewa kulipa bills, au nyumba au chuo na wa kakutoa katika nyumba yako, au kukukatia bills au kukutoa chuo , then utajua whats wrong.
    Utakapopunguzwa kazi kwa kuwa kampuni haiwezi kupata mkopo wa kulipa payroll kutoka benki then utajua.
    Nchi ya TZ hukopa fedha benki ili kuwalipa wafanyakazi wake , huku ikisubiri fedha za Tax zije na za stock. At the same time ikisubiri fedha za wafadhili zikiingia basi iilipe benki iliyokopa fedha za mishahara na TRA ilikokopa fedha ya TAX na banks kwa Stock ilizouza na kukopa.
    Hivyo wafadhili wasipolipa fedha waliosema watatoa kujaliza Bajeti , then the issue is over.
    Unafikiri kwa nini watu wanagoma sasa kila siku TZ(walimu, wanafunzi, manurse., watu wa benki, wastaafu wa EAC) wakidai arreas zao na serikali ikishindwa kuwalipa.
    Ni kwa sababu they (GOV)dont have money and are trying to keep the negotitaons days running ili wakope katika vyanzo vyake kama TRA na benki, then watawarudishia wakilipwa.
    Umeona Dola ilivyopanda juzi TZ kutokana na hii issue , kwa sababu now the GOV does not have enough US Dollars to give around, na inaona iweke kiwango cha wao ku-hold katika reserve zao in any case of emergencies.
    This issue is real and big.
    TZ tunaona mchezo kwa kuwa tunadunda bila kujua kinachokuja, maana tnahisi hata kama kikija hakitatuhusu, we are dead wrong.
    Thanks Dr Shayo kwa kueleza ukweli.
    Gavana Benno Ndullu na Mr John Mashaka wao wanazuia ukweli kwa kuto-inject uoga bali we are to suffer.
    Imeshaitwa Global na TZ tumo vile vile.

  26. Anonymous Anasema:

    First I want to know where did Prof. Ndulu get his PhD from?

    I wonder if he was even doing his own homeworks, manake kuna viongozi wetu wengine, majina tunahifadhi, walikuwa wanafanyiwa home work zote kwa bei nafuu.

  27. Anonymous Anasema:

    Prof Shayo was right to question Prof Benno.
    You can’t leave lay citizens- not knowing what they will face, and especially - this time of hardships. We have seen how this problem was dodged in other countries for months and years, by sweet words and points from its financial expatriates that there will be no any problem to its citizens nor the banks or other institutions regardless. Despite the knowledge they did have in advance, on reasons of not creating any financial fear among its citizens.
    I will just ask Prof Benno through his capacity to let us know on simple terms ,the truth and with his knowledge guide us tell us on what we are supposed to do , what to expect and what is the Government doing to make things ok.
    I have lived long enough in Tanzania to remember that Governor Mtei once said “it will take us 18 months after Nduli Iddi Amin war for our economy to revamp and that there would be nothing to worry, everything would be ok”. In turned, since that statement our economy was never revamped nor did the statement helped our economy. The reasons I am saying this today is for Prof Ndullu to say the truth. This issue is beyond our financial expertise and answering it through books knowledge will never solve anything.
    The former financial guru “Mr. Greenspan” today told the US congress that he did not even saw this financial crisis coming when he left the office last year despite warning Europeans on “something financial big will happen in USA and the world”.
    I argue Prof Benno Ndullu to tell us quickly what economic trials that are in his hand or he wish to take or he has taken and what are the coming errors from those trials, so that we can go on to the other modules that he has- quick -and see if they will give us the right answers to solve this problem once it will get its legs in TZ .

  28. Anonymous Anasema:


    kabla hatujarusha matusi kwa huyu na yule naomba tusome, tuangalie ukweli wa mambo na tuangalie takwimu (hata pamoja na ukweli kuwa kuna ufinyu wa takwimu), naomba wanaochangia hii hoja kwanza waende kwenye tovuti ya soko la hisa dar es salaam wakaangalie [index] yake so far inaelekea vipi, naomba vile vile wapitie taarifa za mwenendo wa thamani ya shilingi katika miaka mitano mpaka leo kulingana na safaru nyingine kama dolari ya kimarekani, Euro na Yeni. Halafu naomba mtafute bajeti zinazosomwa bungeni halafu mkimaliza kama ni wafanya biashara au mna muda wa kufuatilia mienendo mbali mbali ya bei ya bidhaa za muhimu hapo ndio mnaweza kujua kinachoendelea kwenye uchumi wa Tanzania.

    Naomba nikiri kuwa mie sio mchumi kwa hiyo uwezo wangu wa kufanya technical analysis sio mkubwa lakini naomba niwaambie jambo moja kwa kuangalia hizo takwimu zinazosemwa ni rahisi kujua kuwa katika kiwango cha ukweli Prof. Ndullu yuko sahihi kuliko ndugu yangu Shayo, nina sababu kubwa tu ya kusema hivyo, Prof. Ndullu mchumi aliyebobea aliyekuwa mwalimu wa Uchumi UDSM na halafu akaenda Benki ya Dunia sidhani kama kuna jambo ambalo halijui kuhusu mwenendo wa uchumi wa dunia kama si kwa undani basi hata kwa juu juu .. ndio mambo wanayofanya kila siku Benki ya Dunia. Prof Ndullu toka alipokuwa Naibu Gavana na sasa Gavana amejaribu kuweka mambo sawa kidogo, na amekuwa makini kwenye kuangalia sababu ya kila kinachoendelea na kutafuta takwimu mbali mbali (angalieni mwenendo wa shilingi), hali mbaya ya kiuchumi tuliyonayo Tanzania ni mifumo ya kiuchumi tuliyonayo imetufanye tusiathirike kama ambavyo nchi nyingine zinaathirika na kuadhirika na migogoro hii ya kifedha.
    Naomba tuangalie hili suala kisekta:
    1. Sekta ya Benki
    Kuna sheria ngumu zinazozuia uhamishaji wa pesa ambayo ni akiba za watu kwenda nje. La pili ambalo ni kubwa vile vile mikopo inayotolewa kwa wananchi na benki zote za biashara ni migumu na yote inalindwa na rehani kubwa kuliko thamani ya mkopo na mingi inakatiwa bima. hilo limefanya mikopo yote ni ile mikopo mizuri kwa mabenki, wakopaji ni wachache na hakuna kabisaaa subprime borrowers Tz .. kwa kipindi kirefu mabenki ya biashara wamekuwa wakiwekeza hela zao kwenye dhamana za serikali kwa asilimia kubwa tu ( kwa wenye kutaka kufahamu wachungulie taarifa za mapato na matumizi ya mabenki ambazo huchapishwa magazetini kila baada ya miezi mitatu). Hiyo inayaacha wapi mabenki ya Tanzania?? ni kwamba wakifilisika ni kwa ajili ya wizi tu (fraud) sio eti kuna wakopaji wameshindwa kurejesha mikopo kwa vile ni subprime. Jingile labda serikali yenyewe ifilisike basi hapo ndio na hayo mabenki yatafilisika.

    2. Soko la mitaji na hisa
    Soko letu mpaka sasa lina uza hisa za aina moja tu (basic stocks) za makampuni 12 naomba kuyataja ToL, TBL, Tatepa, Tanzania Cigarette, Tanga Cement, Swiss port, Twiga Cement, Nicol, DCB, Kenya Airways, East African Breweries, Jubilee Holdings. Hizi tatu za mwisho ziko crosslisted na Soko la mitaji na hiza la Nairobi (NSE). Kama nilivyokisha sema hapo awali uchambuzi wa thamani ya hisa hizi ni rahisi kidogo kwa vile unaangalia kila hisa inazalisha kiasi gani kulinganisha na bei yake na gawiwo lake kulingana na bei yake. Kwa hisa hizi kwa kiwango hicho cha uchambuzi unaona zinafanya vizuri na kwa vile hizo hisa (kwa ujumla tu, kuna vitu kama ToL hapo ambapo hali si nzuri hivooo)katika sekta ambazo zimejikita kwenye shughuli za moja kwa moja za kila siku kama ujenzi, ulevi, usafiri na shughuli za kibenki, na bima sidhani kama kwa kinachoendelea katika mfumo wa uchumi wa dunia kinaweza kusimamisha shughuli za ujenzi hasa ukichukulia kuwa watu wanajenga kwa hela zao sio mikopo.. nk (this is a simplistic analysis however the DSE Index can back me up)

    3. Sekta ya Madini
    Naomba hili niseme kiufupi sana .. ukiangalia mikataba yetu ya madini yale madini si yetu .. wanachimba wenyewe wanatulipa 3% royalty wanaishia. Kama niombi kwa serikali sitaki wavunje hiyo mikataba ningeomba wapitishe sheria ya kuhakikisha madini yanayovunwa yauzwe hapa hapa nchini kama ni auctions zifanyika Tz! hilo tu hapo ndio mabadiliko ya bei wanaweza kutunufaisha maana 3% ya kiwango cha madini anayoamua ku-declare mwenyewe mchimbaji haishangazi kuwa Gavana ameona asiseme kitu maana yake ni kuwa mchango wake si mkubwa

    4. Bajeti ya mwaka 2008/09
    kama nilisikia vizuri mchango wa wafadhili katika bajeti mwaka huu wa fedha ni asilimia 35% (kama nimekosea nawaombeni radhi nia si kupotosha ila kujaribu kusema ninachokumbuka, hapa mtandao ni slow kidogo siipati vizuri website ya bunge nipitie tena text ya budget)na kulikuwa na mpango wa kutumia sovereign bond (sovereign ni kama ile inayotutikisa kujua kama zanzibar ni nchi au la) ambao ni mkopo ambao nchi inakopa kwa ndia ya kufungua dhamana watu wananunua (my translation may be in trouble though) kwa hayo nadhani kunaweza kuwa na athari kwa kiasi fulani maana hiyo sovereign bond inabidi inunuliwe na mitaji kutoka nje, however hayo mawili ya hapo juu ndio ambayo Gavana ana uwezo wa kujua kwa ukaribu kabisa hali ikoje tusisahau kuwa katika mgogoro huu kuna nchi kama china ina 1.7 trillion dollars reserve wakiamua kununua hiyo sovereign bond yetu hatutakuwa na shida yeyote hilo nadhani gavana atakuwa amelitazama katika kutoa kauli yake

    Katika mchango wangu wa huu mjadala naomba niwakumbushe sie tuliopo dar na kupita mitaani tunaona jambo moja kubwa tu .. nalo ni hela nyingi na sehemu kubwa ya uchumi wa nchi haujaandikishwa hilo linatufanya tuwe nje kidogo ya mifumo ya dunia hili nililisema wakati nachangia hoja kama hii kutoka kwa mtaalamu mwingine wa wall street bwana j. mashaka naamini si mbaya nikirudia hela zinachakaa kwa kutoka kufichwa kwenye soksi, zinahamia kwenye mishipi na hata kwenye sidiria (ashukumu si matusi) kabla hazijafika benki, na zikapita nyumbani kwa bahati zitafichwa chini ya uvungu halafu nk . Kwa wataalamu hebu nielimisheni ukubwa wa lile duka linaloitwa wamachinga ambao wametapakaa kila pembe ya dar es salaam ukijumlisha thamani ya bidhaa zao zooote nina imani zitazidi zilizopo pale mlimani city ukiweka pamoja zote hizo zipo zipo tu hakuna anayejua kuwa that is also a floating economy with weak links to the rest of the registered economy.

    wajumbe naomba kutoa hoja

    Tandale kwa Mtogole

  29. Anonymous Anasema:

    yaani mijitu mingine bana....aaagh!
    muone huyo anony wa 1.43 am, mipumba pumba yake!huyo doctor shayo kaleta mjadala wa uchumi...kama wewe kipanga kaa mie,basi kaa pembeni usome wasomi wakichambua mambo sio kwenda kuleta uharo wako....umepoteza muda weeeeeeee mpk kujua unafika na treni gani hicho chuo alichosomea kha!huo muda si ungetafuta nini kifanyike kusaidia huu uchumi unaolekea kupatwa na misuko suko.....
    nyoko we! kazungumzia uchumi so,kama una ubavu wa kukosoa kazi yake then mkosoe.....umesomea cambridge,oxford udsm RELEVANT HEREEEEE...


  30. Anonymous Anasema:

    Dr. Shayo is mathematician... sorry to say kwamba hana ujuzi wowote kuhusu Economics. Mathematician and Physics major are the one mess Wall Street today. Sababu they thought calculas and other staff has effect on economics.
    Mdau #1

  31. Anonymous Anasema:

    Jamani hata kama mtu kasomea mazingira au nursing yenyewe, anaweza akawa ana interest ya uchumi na hivyo kujionezea maarifa thru reading na kusoma alama za nyakati...sasa kumchambua mtu ooh kasoma sijui chuo gani, hana ujuzi..blah blah, at least ameleta issue ambayo wenye ujuzi wao wanatuongezea maarifa kwa kuichambua, na sio kutueleza mitaa ya chuo iko wapi.....kama na wewe una ujuzi changia kwa nguvu ya hoja na siyo hoja za nguvu....

  32. Anonymous Anasema:

    Kama wanaorusha kashfa kwenye hii blog ni Watanzania, basi tuna safari ndefu!! Dr Shayo katoa maoni yake, watu badala ya kujadili hoja wanamjadili mtu!! Mnaowataka waliosomea uchumi wako wapi mpaka taifa liko mahututi?? Kila mtu na uhuru wa kutoa dukuduku lake bila kumdhuru binadamu au kiumbe mwenzie.

    Kama ndio hivi hata Mh. JK ana kazi kuwaongoza binadamu kama hawa!!

  33. Anonymous Anasema:

    Huu ujinga utaisha lini? samahani sijatukana mtu (mjinga ni mtu asiyejua kitu fulani anakuwa mjinga kwa hilo)
    Haya ndio matatizo ya baadhi ya watanzania wenzangu. Hata kama mko kwenye kikao cha harusi au cha kifamilia, tena ni kikao kidogo tu. Kama wewe ni lofa na wanakujua huna hela, au huna title yoyote ile na hukusoma kama wao ukichangia hoja nzuri au ushauri wowote unaofaa, wanadharau au hawatilii maaanani! utasikia "jamaa naye anaongea nini?"
    Lakini akija mjinga mmoja mwenye hela au cheo hata kama hana point, anatoa pumba, utaona atapigiwa makofi!!!!. Huu mimi naita ni ulimbukeni wa mawazo. Mimi sikusoma sana nimeishia tu Form IV, lakini nimepata Exposure kubwa tu ktk maisha yangu, nimefika US, UK na Uarabuni. Ninaamini hapa duniani kuna CHUO KIKUU CHA MAISHA.kimatumbi wanaita "UNIVERSITY OF LIFE" sasa kutoka hichi chuo kuna ma-graduate wengi sana. Mimi binafsi nimesha kaa sana na wasomi wa UDSM na Vyuo vingine nimechangia mada sana nao na kujichanganya na, IQ yangu ni kubwa, hata wao rafiki zangu wanafikiri nime-graduate, wengine wanadhani nili-graduate US.
    Issue ni kwamba Huyu Dr. Shayo mimi binafsi namfagilia sana na kumpongeza, huyu jamaa ni kichwa, yaani ana akili nyingi.
    Hata kama malimbukeni fulani wanamponda eti sio professional yake, be proud of him, ameweza kutuchambulia mada. Watu wanazaliwa na akili zao,bwana. kama kweli yeye ni mwanamazingira basi he is Genius.
    Sisi tunataka watu wataotushauri na kutuongoza tukomboke na umaskini, yoyote yule si Dr.Shayo pekee. Wapo wengi ambao tunataka mawazo yao, yatukomboe. hatuhitaji vyeti hapa,
    tunataka akili safi zenye afya kama ya Dr. Shayo.

  34. Anonymous Anasema:

    Sikubaliani na dr Shayo. Lakini sikubaliani kabisa na wale wanaotumia lugha ya kumkashifu yeye ama prof. Ndulu. Mara nyingi mtu mwenye hoja dhaifu kinga yake ni kuonyesha ukali ama matusi. Wengi wamedhihirisha hilo hapa. Wazungu wanasema "it says more about them than the persons they seek to denigrade"!

  35. Anonymous Anasema:

    I have been following the comments put for and against Dr. Shayo's article with very considerable disappointment.
    There seem to be two opposing sides to his article. One, there are those who support their fellow Tanzanian for
    bravely coming up with something to chew on the current national and global crises. Two, there are those who have
    lambasted him both on his personal and academic disposition. My comments here are not meant to criticise those who
    have spoken against his article but rather to iron out the de-characterisation behaviour of some members. For example, some members seem
    to be angered by his efforts to speak out about the current recession issue, something they might have failed to do so, and therefore seeing
    him as non-academic, snobbish, opinionated etc. The worst part of the criticisms is also the failure for some members to come up with alternative suggestions
    for healing the current looming economic crises. Instead, they have devoted their time and mental energy to easy
    personal attacks and smears that do not help us much to analyse and synthesise the economic crises. I am neither an economist
    nor a politician but this does not prevent me from seeing the wrong side of the debate. We need to restrain ourselves from
    such negative comments, especially on personal de-characterization, and instead focusing our attention on the thorny issue at hand. Let's take for example,
    the three articles by John Mashaka from the States. In one of his articles, he has academically differed with Shayo on some fundamental issues about his article without being seen as attacking his personal disposition. The article reminds us that we can disagree with someone without
    being disagreeable. Having said that, I am tempted to conclude that some of us seem to be somewhat uncomfortable about our fellow Tanzanians
    who try to speak out against the evils of our society. But who else will speak out for us? Isn't someone like Shayo or John, no matter what the cynicists and sceptics say?
    Long live constructive criticism!


  36. Anonymous Anasema: